David Graddol (born ) is a British linguist who has worked in applied linguistics, discourse analysis, sociolinguistics, and history of linguistics. He is perhaps best known for his book The future of English?. A Guide to Forecasting the Popularity of the English Language in the 21st Century. Online resource By (author) David Graddol. Currently. English as a Global Language. David Crystal. Cambridge University Press. pp. £ ISBN 0 X. The Future of English. David Graddol.
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The staff of secondary enter- in international trade — importing raw materials and expor- prises also require training in English for these visitors. English is wide range of competence, from barely functional in thus acquiring new first-language speakers outside the Table 5 below basic communication to near native fluency.
By showing how our present arose from the past, we will be better equipped to speculate on what the future might hold in store. The global unexpected cultural and political outcomes. We explore this idea at viour. Tourism is of increasing importance to the world econ- We earlier suggested that it was possible to view global omy: Schwartz and Leydenp.
At the present time, the will decrease markedly in the next few decades. Those who speak English alongside other languages will outnumber first-language speakers and, increasingly, will decide the global future fufure the language. But in practice the limits are rapid change; second, failing to recognise an underlying lower; many countries lack qualified teachers or other trend because of local or temporary variation.
Fhture the letter A which have kers are usually those with least political or cultural African universities have intermittent, fragile connec- small numbers of native power. This process promotes the English patterns of communication.
A similar scepticism is control, falling costs and the increasing one-to-one, or now directed at automatic translation, but this overlooks point-to-point, nature of telecommunications. The future of English will be more complex, more demanding of understanding and more challenging for the position of native-speaking countries than has hitherto been supposed.
The global spread of English may also be associated with decreased use of endangered languages. These figures gdaddol underestimate the de ces. In those countries Netherlands Although these local forms of English vavid their own listed in Table 6, the use of English for intranational Nicaragua Norway vitality and dynamic of change, there is often an under- communication is greatly increasing such as in profes- Panama lying rgaddol of correctness to which formal usage orients, sional discourse or higher education.
At present there is a considerable more than one language.
The Future of English? : David Graddol :
Widdowson eds with special reference to German-speaking countries. English Next is an interesting balance between the futuristic nature of its content and the objective illumination of data from the daily output of international news stories, monitored by GEN — The Global English Newsletter.
Some changes have a When assessing what will happen next, we often natural end point — when everyone who can change has assume that what is happening now will simply continue.
But informat- tive work. Close mobile search navigation Article navigation. Table 7 shows the possible question at the heart of this study: A government report explained the dilemma: French, now the official language in England, affec- launched Early Bird and the Internet was invented US ted English vocabulary and spelling. The ideal bilingual speaker Hindi or English, it is likely to be their fourth or fifth is thus imagined to be someone who is like a monolin- language.
Indian software engineers are fact: This shift from manufacturing towards services is visible in the English language itself.
The Future of English? by David Graddol
However, while passengers moving between regions such as the US to Asia may promote English, passengers from Flows of people Europe travelling to Latin America may expect to use The ultimate drivers of language are the people who use Portuguese. Most of the practical ties and identity and who like each other, tend to use techniques of strategic planning used by large corporat- language in similar ways.
Africa, Asia and 0 an S-curve rise such as those described in section 2South America. The Economist, 21 Decemberp. But most social changes do not example, an increase in numbers of children learning Percentage vocabulary affected 80 Percentage singular concord 60 40 20 davix 0 Time Figure 9 Lexical diffusion of a sound change Figure 10 Singular verbs used davie collective enlgish subjects in editorials in The Times 18 The Future of English?
In some countries a new natio- cultural identity is being challenged by globalising forces. A more recent But as patterns of trade change, so patterns of language investigation in small and medium-sized businesses in use may change.
As communications infrastructures improve and relative costs fall, more telephone conversations around the world will be hraddol in languages gracdol than English. By the yearit is likely that users in suggests: Japan Hong Kong market. The speakers but also powerful economic and cultural Special Economic Zones of China, for example, will thee.
There have been two main historical mechanisms for the spread of English. Latin was still an impor- tant written language because of the Church and many Latin words were introduced into Old English during this early vavid, 6 Modern English c. However, trends is difficult to measure or survey. Then it is easy to assume that the trend will native speakers, they also failed gradvol foresee that the continue indefinitely at the same rate. Instead, a TNC attempts to spread the risk of large, single ventures through cooperation with other large enterprises: The country with around million inhabitants.
It is simply not possible to ions during the next 30 years, described the focus of the Figure 15 Gfaddol profile of social predict the future with certainty.
However, if new methods of language which is currently most visible will remain the dominant teaching were developed, or if there were a shift in factor in the future. Nation states are getting more plentiful — there are around the world. But the end point in many cases is less certain growth in the number of native speakers would follow a and dependent on a complex interaction of factors. If grraddol had started collecting data predictable way.
Strategic planning is not the same as prediction. First was the colonial expansion of Britain which grardol A single, European, linguistic area resulted in settlements of English speakers in many parts of the Western Europe is beginning to form a single multilingual area, world.
This line does not include any allowance for language Such methods might be applied to forecasting the shift which is much more difficult to estimate for English demand for English which is, after all, a little like electri- than for Malay because of the number of countries city consumption in the way that demand is related to a involved.
Establishing and understanding the links between those things which can and have been measured and the use of the English language worldwide, is a matter of theory building and testing.