Gary Shilling has fingered ‘deflation’ has a global malady. The problem is that he doesn’t know what deflation is. Shilling runs the New Jersey-based economic consulting firm the bears his name , A. Gary Shilling & Company, and he is the author of The Age. A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a New Jersey Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.” Some.
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Now that’s just putting a ruler on trend. In the late s, when most thought that syilling inflation would last forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well as to potentially serious financial and economic readjustment problems, and a shift in investment strategy from one favoring tangible shillinf to an emphasis on stocks and bonds.
They seemed to increase rates 25 basis points-a quarter of a point-last December I think because they’ve been crying wolf so long their credibility was disappearing.
They thought they could outlast others and when you’re in a price war, the cost of meeting budgets isn’t the number that counts He is also the creator of The Deflation Game, a board game that illustrates and reinforces his long-term forecast that deflation is a greater threat than a return to high inflation. You look now and Germany is negative; Japan, they’re negative. Where do you think rates are headed-higher or, given how things are playing out currently, lower to try and ease financial conditions?
Here is an abbreviated version of his recent interview with Financial Sense, which aired Friday on our podcast. So, for European investors, they basically can invest in Treasuries and pick up a yield spread and if the dollar rallies, as I think it will, they get a double whammy because they get more yen or more euros when they convert that back into their own currency.
Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine ranked Dr. Shilling does not yet manage any mutual funds, but CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19 well-known mutual fund managers in his book, The Mutual Fund Masters Probus Publishing, He appears frequently on radio and television business shows.
Half of Federal Reserve board members are forecasting only one rate hike this year now when most thought we would see four rate hikes in I mean if you go back a couple of months they in effect said they were going to raise rates four times this year and now it looks like they may raise once or maybe not at all Investment strategies for a decade of slow growth and deflation. Cartels exist to keep prices above equilibrium-that’s the only reason for that-and that encourages cheating; somebody in or out of the cartel wants more than their share and so the leader of the cartel’s job is to cut its own production to accommodate the cheaters.
In the spring ofhe was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year. The second factor is that we have virtually no inflation and a delfation probability of panic deflation by my assessment. Inhe stood almost alone in forecasting that the world was vary a massive inventory-building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since the s. Before establishing his own firm inDr.
Recognized as an effective and dynamic speaker, he often addresses national and international meetings of various business groups, including the Young Presidents Deflatino.
He also was an informal economic advisor to former President George H.
INSIGHT — A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc.
InMcGraw-Hill published Deflation: One is that Treasuries have a tremendous safe-haven appeal. Well, the Saudis-the leader of the OPEC cartel-decided that they were not going to go along with that and that they were going to basically encourage OPEC to not increase production-not to cut-and to play a game of chicken. Do you still believe that and what will be the driver? Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. But now they look around, labor markets are certainly weak.
A frequent contributor to the financial press, he is a regular columnist for Forbes magazine and his articles appear in other leading financial publications. I certainly do and there are several factors.
Shilling has published numerous articles on the business outlook and techniques of economic analysis and forecasting, and he serves as Associate Editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association of Business Economics.
How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, which was translated for readers in China. Yeah, I’ve been on record-I said in our Insight newsletter early in the year that I thought the next move of the Fed would be to cut rates not to increase them.
If you simply look at the rate in which the deleveraging has taken place so far, it could actually take another 6 or 8 years.
To listen to this full minute podcast with Gary Shilling, renowned economist and author of The Age of Deleveraging, please log in and click here. They’ve been talking about a stronger economy Foreigners, when times are tough, go to Treasuries Shilling is the President of A. His first book, Is Inflation Ending? Earlier, as a high school senior, he ranked 12th in the nation in the Westinghouse Science Talent Search. Yes, definitely, and the reason is because OPEC is a cartel.
How much longer do you expect the age of deleveraging to continue?
His fourth book, Deflation: He is also an avid beekeeper. And inMoneySense ranked him as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett.
And the third interesting factor is Treasury yields, as low as they are, are shiilling higher than those of almost every other developed country.